Details Abstract This paper assesses how globalisation has shaped the economic environment in which the ECB operates and discusses whether this warrants adjustments to the monetary policy strategy.
The paper first looks at how trade and financial integration have evolved since the last strategy review in While trade globalisation initially boosted productivity growth, this effect may be waning as trade integration slows and market contestability promotes a winner-takes-all environment. Headline inflation rates have become more synchronised globally, largely because commodity prices are increasingly determined by global factors.
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Meanwhile, core inflation rates show a lower degree of commonality. Globalisation has made a rather modest contribution to the synchronised fall in trend inflation across countries and contributed only moderately to the reduction in the responsiveness of inflation to changes in activity.
Regarding monetary transmission, globalisation has made the role of the exchange rate more complex by introducing new mechanisms through which forex invest gold affects financial conditions, real activity and price dynamics. In doing so, it asks two questions.